virtual worlds

Previous and still open issues on the NMC/NITLE Horizon Prediction markets included questions on the Growth of eTextbooks, (Eletronic Books Horizon Topic) and most recently with speculations on features in the next version of Apple's iPad (Mobiles Horizon Topic). To play the markets, you want to sort out rumors vs real trends- for example, we will not know for sure when the new iPad will release, yet stories like one from recently from The Next Web may help you tip your bets.

A third market has opened that reflects the mid-term Horizon Topic of Augmented Reality - in this one, the market asks you to predict which will receive more attention between now and April 1- Augmented Reality or Virtual Worlds.

If you plotted the path of virtual worlds on a Gartner Hype Cycle, 2008 would likely be identified as the "Peak of Inflated Expectations."  Two years earlier, in July 2006, Second Life appeared as the cover story in Business Week and the platform began to capture the public's imagination in ways none of us would have predicted.  (A little history:  The NMC began its early work researching Second Life in late 2005 (8 months before the Business cover story), and established the NMC Campus in Second Life early in 2006.)